Agricultural production threatened by combination of El Niño and high input prices

Main findings of the May global overview

1. Southern Africa anticipates an above-average regional cereal output for 2025/2026, driven by a 10% maize increase in South Africa (compared to the 5-year average), a record harvest in Zambia, and a 2% rise in Zimbabwe (compared to last year’s output). Conversely, adverse weather conditions are expected to reduce yields in parts of Angola, Mozambique, and southern Madagascar. While regional rangelands are generally healthy, poor conditions in coastal Angola threaten livestock production.
2. In East Africa, abundant, early rains have benefited crop areas in Kenya, Ethiopia, and northern Uganda. Conversely, delayed and irregular rainfall threatens yields in Somalia and the pastoral areas of southeastern Ethiopia. Harvesting in Tanzania’s bimodal areas is ongoing with below average prospects following earlier seasonal rainfall deficits and further output deficits are likely in late 2026 due to the upcoming El Niño. Agriculture is severely disrupted by intense conflicts in Sudan and South Sudan, driving populations toward famine. Meanwhile, recurring droughts and soaring input and fuel prices—fueled by the war in Iran—further deplete farmers’ assets across non-conflict countries.
3. In West and central Africa, first-season maize conditions are generally favorable, though conflict in Nigeria and the Central Sahel severely disrupts farming and fuels humanitarian crises. Planting delays affect parts of Ghana, Benin, Chad, Guinea, and Togo, while land preparation continues across the Sahel for June planting. Seasonal forecasts indicate average rainfall for most Gulf of Guinea countries, but drier-than-average conditions in Senegal, Gambia, Guinea, southern Chad, and the wider Sahelian belt.
4. Winter cereal harvests in the Middle East and North Africa show excellent prospects with above-average biomass following favorable rainfall since December, marking a strong recovery for Morocco and Algeria after years of drought. While harvest prospects are largely positive across both regions, localized issues include irrigation cuts in southern Iraq and flooding in Morocco. In Yemen, favorable weather has boosted crop prospects, though severe food insecurity continues to affect 17 million people due to ongoing conflict and economic instability.
5. Central Asia reports favorable winter cereal prospects with above-average biomass following beneficial rains since December. Favourable prospects are also reported in Afghanistan though 14 million Afghans face acute food insecurity due to a combination of reasons. In South Asia, Pakistan and Bangladesh finalized successful harvests of rabi crops and irrigated boro rice respectively. Sri Lanka’s second-season crops show good prospects, while North Korea is completing rice and maize planting under favorable conditions, though an 8% reduction in winter crop area might offset positive biomass gains (UkrAgroConsult).
6. In Latin America and the Caribbean islands, primera crop planting faces delays due to initial low rainfall and high temperatures. While current South American harvests are largely favorable, upcoming El Niño conditions drive opposing weather patterns across the region: severe dryness threatens maize and rice across Central America, the Caribbean, and Colombia, while above-average rainfall is forecast for Bolivia, Ecuador, and Peru. Furthermore, soaring fuel and fertilizer prices hamper regional agriculture, resulting in a total diesel depletion in Cuba and peak fuel prices across Bolivia, Peru, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua.

The next assessment is scheduled for the end of June 2026.