In short
The September 2025 JRC MARS Bulletin confirms that drought and repeated heatwaves during summer in south-eastern Europe have led to irreversible yield losses in Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and parts of Türkiye. Summer crops such as maize and sunflower are most affected, with forecasts well below the five-year average. Elsewhere, heatwaves and dry spells alternated with moderate and rainy periods, providing generally favourable crop conditions. While western and central Europe experienced mixed but stable yields, above-average harvests are expected in northern Europe. Irrigation has maintained fair crop expectations in the Iberian peninsula.
Overall prospects for rice are positive, with Italy, Spain, Portugal and France showing strong yield potential, whereas southern Spain, Bulgaria, Romania and Greece face a mediocre to poor outlook. The overall EU rice yield is forecast to reach 6 % above the five-year average.
This edition features an extended section on crop monitoring and yield forecasting for Türkiye alongside an in-depth analysis of rice in Europe’s main cultivating areas.
Alerts for dry summer risks
- Northern Germany: A prolonged rainfall deficit has reduced soil moisture, although some precipitation occurred in early September. Crops have not been strongly impacted so far, and forecasts indicate possible rainfall that could mitigate yield deterioration.
- Easternmost Poland: Overall conditions are favourable, but a persistent lack of precipitation in the easternmost regions has reduced green maize and sunflower yield expectations locally.
- Eastern Hungary: Since the beginning of summer, very low precipitation has been observed, and crop yield prospects are now deteriorating.
- Southern Romania and Bulgaria: Very poor summer crop growth has resulted from drought conditions exacerbated by repeated heatwaves in July and August, with very low yields expected for maize, sunflower and soybean.
- Southern Türkiye: Very high August temperatures and persistently low soil moisture could result in the further deterioration of summer crop yields.
Impacts already observed in summer crops
- Eastern Hungary, southern Romania, Bulgaria and the very easternmost part of Croatia: The very poor summer crop growth in these regions is linked to drought conditions that are still ongoing.
- Western France: Hot and dry conditions at the beginning of August accelerated the senescence phase of summer crops.
- Southern Germany: Pest presence in June and July constrained sugar beet growth.
- Central Italy: Unfavourable July conditions reduced sunflower yield outlook.
- Central Greece: The lack of rainfall and poor replenishment of reservoirs continued in August, keeping yield expectations low.
- Türkiye and southern and eastern Ukraine: Prolonged very hot and dry summer conditions caused below-average summer crop development that the moderate weather of the past week could not sufficiently mitigate.
Further agricultural information
Subscribe to the JRC MARS Bulletin | JRC MARS (Monitoring Agricultural Resources) Bulletins
For comprehensive agricultural insights for Europe, explore the JRC AGRI4CAST website, which offers a wealth of information, tools, data and tutorials, including:
- JRC MARS Bulletins: Receive monthly analyses on crop growth conditions and yield forecasts for the EU and neighbouring countries.
- JRC MARS Explorer: Access over 2000 high-resolution maps and graphs detailing recent weather conditions and crop-growth progress.
- AGRI4CAST Resources Portal: Utilise freely available datasets and software developed by AGRI4CAST for public use.
- Crop Forecasting Videos: Engage with an educational collection of videos that provide an overview of crop monitoring and yield forecasting activities.
For global agricultural insights, visit the JRC’s ASAP (Anomaly Hotspots of Agricultural Production) website to access the latest information on global agricultural production hotspots in countries at risk of food insecurity.
Links to related topics
O artigo foi publicado originalmente em JRC.
