ASAP assessment August 2024

Main findings of the August global overview:

1. The main cereal season harvest has been completed in southern Africa. Aggregate cereal production is estimated at ca 14 % below the 5-year average (FAO, Crop Prospects and Food Situation, July 2024). The Copernicus rainfall forecast for September–November 2024 indicates drier than average conditions across most parts of the region except for northern Angola, most of Madagascar, Malawi, central and northern Mozambique, Zambia and northern Zimbabwe, where average to above-average rains are forecast.
2. In East Africa, major floods since late July have affected various regions of Sudan. The abundant rainfall of July and August is leading to high crop production expectations in eastern Ethiopia and parts of Kenya. Good rains earlier in the season have also supported crop production in Somalia and first-season crops in Uganda. In South Sudan, a mix of high temperatures followed by intensive and irregular rainfall is affecting different parts of the country. In Sudan, the small size of planted areas and predicted production decline are expected to further exacerbate food security outcomes. Already, famine conditions were declared for some parts of the country (Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) 5) in early August.
3. North Africa is mostly dry in this season, and winter cereal production has been affected by severe drought in western Algeria and Morocco. Central and eastern Algeria and Tunisia have experienced better rainfall conditions since December 2023, leading to close-to-average crop yields.
4. In West and central Africa, the impact of early-season rainfall deficits on crop growth is still evident in south-western Burkina Faso, southern Chad, northern Côte d’Ivoire, northern Ghana, south-western Mali and central Nigeria. In addition, drops in agricultural production are expected in areas affected by floods. According to FEWS NET, ‘In Niger, flooding has affected approximately 4,647 hectares of cropland, while in Mali, about 113,619 hectares have been impacted. Nigeria recorded the most extensive cropland flooding, with approximately 204,804 hectares affected, followed by Chad with 184,912 hectares.’
5. In the Middle East, the harvest of winter cereals was finalised in July, with favourable prospects in Iran, Iraq and Syria, except in a few areas (Qadisiyah in Iraq, and Fars, south Khorasan and Ghazvin in Iran). The rice harvest has started or is about to start in Iran and Iraq, and production is expected to be average to above average. In Yemen, abundant rainfall since July has benefited sorghum and wheat crops on the west coast and in the central highlands.
6. In central Asia, the harvest of winter cereals was finalised in August, and prospects are good. The harvest of spring/summer crops has also started, with favourable prospects. In Afghanistan, the harvest of spring (wheat and barley) and summer crops (maize) has started under favourable conditions. In South Asia, conditions of irrigated kharif crops (rice, maize, millet) in Pakistan, and aman rice in Bangladesh, are good, boosted by abundant rainfall that also resulted in floods in both countries (see special focus for Bangladesh floods). In Sri Lanka, the harvest of second-season yala rice and maize is under way with favourable prospects.
7. South-East Asia is no longer monitored by Anomaly Hotspots of Agricultural Production (ASAP) analysts. In east Asia, the ASAP team continues to monitor only North Korea, where prospects are good for maize, whose harvest started in mid-August, and rice, which is to be harvested in September-October, despite localised floods at the end of July in the north of the rice bowl area (about 3 000 ha in Pyongan Bukto) and west of Sariwon (Hwanghae Bukto and Hwanghae Namdo). If specifically requested, an ad hoc analysis can be conducted for any country of the region (please contact us by email:JRC-ASAPec [dot] europa [dot] eu (JRC-ASAP[at]ec[dot]europa[dot]eu)).
8. In Latin America and the Caribbean islands, the harvest of sorghum, wheat and maize in Bolivia was completed in August, with poor prospects. In contrast, in Colombia, Cuba, Ecuador, Haiti and Peru, harvests are ongoing under favourable conditions. The primera cycles (maize and beans) in Central American countries normally enter or are about to enter the harvesting stage in August. Despite average to above-average rains in the last month, large cropland areas still showed poor vegetation activity by 20 August, with El Salvador being the country most affected. In the areas where the primera cycle is delayed, rainfall is forecast to be above average until the end of September, which could still bring some improvement (Copernicus C3S multimodel).

The next assessment is scheduled for the end of September 2024.

O artigo foi publicado originalmente em JRC.