In short
Repeated heatwaves shortened the grain-filling phase of winter crops and brought forward the harvest, which has already been completed in the south and is progressing elsewhere. EU yield forecasts for winter crops have been revised downwards by 1–4 %, leaving the outlook for total cereals at 1 % below the five-year average.
For summer crops, exceptional heat and limited rainfall across western and central Europe depleted soil moisture, constrained biomass accumulation and affected flowering. Yield forecasts have been reduced for all spring and summer crops, most notably for grain maize and sunflowers (6–7 %). Hot and dry conditions are forecast to persist in western Europe, increasing the likelihood of further yield reductions.
This edition includes an extended analysis of Türkiye, where a cool, wet spring supported record-high winter crop yields and favourable prospects for summer crops.
Areas of concern
Heat stress adversely affected winter and summer crops across western Europe. In parts of western and central Europe, persistent water deficits compounded the heat stress, causing widespread damage to crops.
Heat stress
Repeated heatwaves during the last 10 days of June and again around mid July brought record-high temperatures across most of western and southern Europe. While winter crops were generally already at advanced developmental stages or close to harvest, the prolonged heat increasingly affected summer crops, particularly where irrigation was limited or soil moisture had already been depleted.
- Spain: Winter crops in Castilla y León, already having been affected by suboptimal conditions earlier in the season, experienced a shortened grain-filling phase due to high temperatures. Elsewhere, the very high temperatures have had only limited impacts on crops still in the field.
- Northern and central Italy: Maize growth has been suboptimal following heat stress during flowering, and early-flowering varieties may have experienced reduced fertility. The largest impacts are expected in non-irrigated fields.
- Ireland: Despite the high temperatures recorded having accelerated winter crop senescence, no major concerns are observed.
Heat stress and water deficit
The combination of repeated heatwaves and limited rainfall depleted soil moisture across large parts of western and central Europe, increasing heat and water stress, particularly for summer crops.
- France. Successive heatwaves with record-high temperatures, combined with limited soil moisture, negatively affected the final phenological stages of winter crops and the development of summer crops, with the clearest impacts observed in western regions where heat stress coincided with limited water availability. Nevertheless, generally adequate soil moisture reserves and irrigation in some areas still provide scope for crop recovery, while the south-east was less severely affected.
- Easternmost Belgium, Luxembourg, south-western Germany, Austria, Slovakia and Czechia. Low soil moisture was further depleted by exceptionally high temperatures, which increased water stress on summer crops and led to major concerns for their yield potential. Winter and spring crops matured prematurely, requiring early harvesting and raising doubts about grain size and quality.
- Hungary and western Romania. Intense heat further depleted already low soil moisture, exacerbating severe drought conditions. The strongest impacts are observed in Hungary, where both winter and summer crops have been affected, while impacts in western Romania are generally less severe.
Water deficit
- South-eastern Poland and western Ukraine: Soil moisture depletion persisted, but no major additional impacts on crops are currently expected.
- Northern Türkiye: The rainfall deficit since mid June may have locally affected some non-irrigated fields, but overall soil moisture conditions are still adequate.
Water excess and cool temperatures
- North-eastern Poland, western Latvia and western Lithuania: Above-average rainfall may delay harvesting, reduce grain quality and favour the development and spread of diseases.
- Central Türkiye: Cool conditions have further delayed winter crop development, and harvesting could be postponed by 20 to 30 days.
Local storms
Storms were reported across northern Italy, Slovenia, Croatia and Germany. Strong wind gusts, downbursts and hail caused lodging and other physical damage to summer crops. Due to the uneven spatial distribution and variable intensity of these events, the affected areas are not shown on the maps.
O artigo foi publicado originalmente em JRC.
