In short
Growing conditions across Europe remain generally favourable, with winter crops approaching maturity and summer crops developing well in most regions. EU yield forecasts point to yields just above the five-year average, but below last year’s figures, with only minor revisions compared with last month.
However, the dry spring and the heatwave in May have reduced winter crop yield prospects in parts of western, central and eastern Europe. Concerns are also increasing for summer crops where soil moisture reserves remain depleted while water demand is rising. High temperatures and limited rainfall forecast until the end of June across much of western and central Europe will intensify crop water stress and can threaten the yield potential.
This edition includes a dedicated rice analysis. The 2026 rice campaign has started smoothly across the main producing regions, with favourable yield prospects at the EU level.
Areas of concern
The main concerns relate to persistent crop water stress in western, central and eastern Europe, which has already reduced winter crop yield expectations in several regions and raises concerns for summer crops as water demand increases.
Persistent spring dryness reduces winter crop yield expectations in western, central and eastern Europe
Persistent rainfall deficits since spring have depleted soil moisture reserves across several regions. The impacts on winter crops are now evident, and concerns are increasing for summer crops.
- Central-western France: The hot spell in late May, combined with low soil moisture levels, impacted reproductive stages and has thus reduced winter crop yield expectations.
- Southern Czechia, western Slovakia, most of Hungary and westernmost Romania: Prolonged dryness and reduced soil moisture availability have negatively affected winter crop development, reducing yield expectations. Although recent rainfall partly alleviated the soil water deficit, summer crops may soon suffer from the forecast hot and dry weather.
- Western Ukraine and central Ukraine: Persistent rainfall deficits since spring have limited soil moisture and reduced winter crop yield expectations.
- South-western Germany and easternmost France: Low soil moisture levels, combined with forecast heat and limited rainfall, raise concerns for summer crops, particularly maize and sugar beet. Winter crops are less exposed, as they are already approaching maturity.
Heat and water stress reduce winter crop yield potential in parts of Italy
- Central Italy: A hot spell in late May accelerated grain filling of winter cereals, reducing yield expectations, but they still remain above the five-year average.
- Sicilia: Hot and dry conditions during May compromised the final stages of durum wheat, slightly reducing the very good yield expectations.
Previously reported impacts
- Spain: In Castilla y León, the unfavourable emergence of winter crops led to limited biomass accumulation (May bulletin), with irreversible yield losses.
- Hungary and western Romania, Poland, Czechia and Lithuania: Late frost events impacted rapeseed flowering and winter crops growth (May bulletin).
O artigo foi publicado originalmente em JRC.
