Despite the fair-to-positive outlook, winter wheat production is forecast significantly below the 5-year average due to reduced sown areas. The decrease in winter crop sown areas, due to the lower availability of labour and agricultural input because of Russia’s war against Ukraine, does not only apply for the non-government controlled areas, but also in the oblasts under the control of Ukraine.
The JRC MARS yield forecasts for winter crops currently follow historical trends. In terms of production, this translates into a forecast of 25.48 Mt of wheat, 3.77 Mt of winter barley and 3.04 Mt of rapeseed, of which 20.67 Mt (wheat), 3.08 Mt (winter barley) and 2.71 Mt (rapeseed) are forecast for the government-controlled areas. These initial forecasts will be revised depending on areas estimate adjustments and on updated MARS yield forecasts during the remaining season.