Main findings of the March global overview:
- In Southern Africa, the main cereal season is progressing across the region under mixed conditions and harvest is expected to start in April. Although vegetation conditions at mid-March are generally favourable across the region, overall production prospects are curbed by the destruction of standing crops due to flooding (linked to Cyclone Freddy), by drought that affected croplands in some parts (south-western Angola, northern Namibia), and by high input prices.
- In East Africa, heavy rains in March are expected to improve pasture regeneration and replenishment of water points, and will favour planting and early-stage crop development. However, due to the prolonged consecutive droughts, overall vegetation conditions are still below average for this time of year. The seasonal precipitation forecasts for April-May have improved compared with earlier forecasts. Close monitoring of the season as it evolves, along with continuous humanitarian assistance, will be critical. The risk of famine remains high for Somalia. Nearly 26 million people in Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Djibouti, Uganda and Sudan are in IPC Phase 3 and worse.
- In West and Central Africa, with the onset of seasonal rains in March, land preparation and sowing activities for the first maize season are starting in the southern bimodal parts of the region along the coast of the Gulf of Guinea. Rainfall conditions were average over the past month across the region. In Sahelian countries, planting activities will start in April in southern areas. The Copernicus C3S Multimodel seasonal rainfall forecast for the period April to May 2023 indicates average to above-average rainfall in most parts of the region. However, below-average rainfall is predicted for the same period in Burkina Faso, southern Mali, western Guinea and parts of northern Ghana and northern Benin.
- In North Africa and the Middle East, the near absence of rainfall in March has further worsened winter cereal conditions and below-average production is expected in the Maghreb region and in northern Syria, northern Iraq, southern Syria and north-eastern Iran. Crop conditions are average to above average in the southern half of Iraq and most of Iran. In Yemen, although land for sorghum is being prepared under favourable conditions, food insecurity continues to affect 17 out of 30 million people.
- In Central Asia, conditions of winter cereals are average or above-average, except in Turkmenistan. In Afghanistan, conditions of winter wheat are mixed, however food insecurity remains very high. In South Asia, prospects are average for winter cereals (rabi crops) in Pakistan and above average for irrigated dry-season Boro rice in Bangladesh. In Sri Lanka, harvest of main (Maha) season rice and maize has completed with favourable prospects.
- In continental South-East Asia and the Philippines, irrigated dry-season rice, which is in vegetative phase in most areas, is in favourable condition. In Indonesia, prospects are good for wet-season rice.
- In Latin America and Caribbean islands, the first crop cycle of the season is about to start and the rainfall forecast indicates drier-than-usual conditions until the end of May in El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala and Nicaragua. In Cuba and Bolivia, the main cycles of maize and rice (minor cycle in Cuba) have been completed and observed biomass conditions are normal. The rainfall forecast for Colombia points to drier-than-usual conditions until May. As a result, main maize and rice cycles that have recently started may be affected. Close monitoring is necessary in the coming weeks.
The next assessment is scheduled for the end of April 2023.
O artigo foi publicado originalmente em JRC.