Persistent drought in western regions and rainfall deficits in parts of the centre reduced yield potential, while timely rainfall and the absence of severe thermal stress supported fair to positive conditions elsewhere.
For winter crops, conditions during grain filling and ripening remained generally favourable, with no significant thermal stress. However, persistent drought in western oblasts further constrained yield formation, while frequent rainfall in July and early August delayed harvesting and locally affected grain quality. Harvest reports confirm the above-average wheat yield outlook, while rapeseed yields were close to the forecast. Winter crop forecasts from the June edition remain unchanged, with a slight upward revision for spring barley.
Summer crops faced more contrasting conditions. Delayed sowing following cold spring weather was followed by drought in the west and rainfall deficits in parts of the centre and south-east, limiting crop development. Abundant rainfall in July improved conditions in many eastern regions, although August was predominantly dry. Crop-specific Sentinel-2 analysis confirms these regional differences, with above-average vegetation development in northern and north-eastern areas and below-average biomass accumulation in the west and south.
Grain maize and sunflower yields are forecast slightly above the five-year average, at 7.40 t/ha and 2.29 t/ha, respectively, supporting production of 35.1 and 14.0 million tonnes. In contrast, soybean yields are forecast 5% below average, while reduced area brings production to 3.68 million tonnes, 23% below the five-year average. The weakest prospects are concentrated in western regions, where drought particularly affected maize and soybean development.
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