As of August 2026, acute food insecurity remains at very high levels across many countries, according to the mid-year update of the Global Report on Food Crises 2026. The report points to conflict, insecurity and weather extremes as the main drivers, aggravated by high food and fertiliser prices. At the same time, new risks linked to the climate phenomenon El Niño, the Middle East conflicts and reduced humanitarian funding are expected to worsen conditions further in late 2026 and into 2027.
Risk of Famine was identified in three countries affected by highly volatile conditions – Somalia, South Sudan and the Sudan – despite an overall decrease in the number of people facing Catastrophe conditions (IPC/CH Phase 5) compared with 2025. Catastrophe is the most severe level of acute food insecurity according to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), a multi-stakeholder initiative that informs food crisis response globally.
The reduced numbers of people in Phase 5 were recorded only in a few specific locations, notably in the Sudan and Gaza, where better security and access to humanitarian assistance helped improve conditions.
The report highlights other concerning patterns about the evolution of acute food insecurity and malnutrition in countries and territories facing food crises:
- Overall, progress remains uneven and fragile, and further setbacks expected in late 2026 and 2027, owing to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, El Niño and reduced humanitarian funding, are not yet accounted for in the estimates. Improvements were observed in 17 countries and territories between 2025 and 2026, while deteriorations were reported in 15.
- The countries and territories with the highest prevalence of acute food insecurity remained unchanged in 2026. The Gaza Strip, South Sudan, Yemen, Sudan, Haiti and Afghanistan were among those with the highest shares of their analysed populations facing Crisis or worse (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above). The IPC/CH Phase 3 refers to households which face high food consumption gaps, high acute malnutrition, or cope by selling essential belonging. Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan, Bangladesh and Yemen were among the countries with the largest numbers of people facing high levels of acute food insecurity.
- The nutrition outlook worsened in several countries. Kenya, Somalia and South Sudan were classified as facing very severe nutrition crises, with some areas reaching Extremely Critical conditions (IPC Acute Malnutrition Phase 5, which refers to severe wasting, bilateral oedema, and critical mortality rates). These aggravating trends reflect a combination of worsening acute food insecurity, high disease prevalence, poor infant and young child feeding practices, limited access to health, nutrition and WASH services (water, sanitation and hygiene), humanitarian access constraints and funding shortfalls.
What drivers are likely to intensify food insecurity?
The report identifies several emerging drivers likely to worsen food insecurity in the coming months. El Niño is already established and is expected to persist through February 2027, increasing the likelihood of droughts, floods and other weather shocks that could disrupt agricultural production, food systems and livelihoods.
In the Horn of Africa, this includes worsening risks in Somalia. in Southern Africa, countries such as Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe may face agricultural drought and reduced pasture availability. JRC scientists have summarised the impacts of El Niño on food and nutrition security in a brief based on a series of sources.
The Middle East conflict is also increasing pressure on vulnerable countries through higher fuel and transport costs, trade disruptions and reduced import capacity. Countries such as Lebanon, the Sudan, Afghanistan, Somalia, Bangladesh and Pakistan are identified as particularly exposed because of import dependence, remittance links and higher input costs.
At the same time, financing conditions are worsening. Net official development assistance from Development Assistance Committee (DAC) countries is projected to fall by further 6.9% to USD 152 billion in 2026, the lowest level since 2014 and the third consecutive annual decline. Humanitarian Official Development Assistance (ODA) is projected to fall by 40.3% between 2024 and 2026, while food aid is expected to decline by 44.5%. These cuts are expected to weaken assistance, nutrition support, monitoring systems and resilience-building efforts in countries already facing food crises.
JRC support to data analysis and intelligence
The mid-year update of the Global Report on Food Crises 2026 draws on acute food insecurity data provided by international partners working to improve food security worldwide, including the Integrated food security Phase Classification (IPC), the Cadre Harmonisé (CH), the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), the World Food Programme (WFP)’s Consolidated Approach for Reporting on food security Indicator (CARI) and Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan People in Need (HNRP PIN) estimates. These sources provide estimates of high levels of acute food insecurity.
The Joint Research Centre (JRC) plays an important role in supporting the production and quality of these data. It provides technical and advisory support to the IPC and CH frameworks and contributes to the GRFC data quality assurance process through the Core Technical Group (one of the two governance bodies of the report).
In 2025 the Food Security Information Network (FSIN), the organisation in charge of the previous nine issues of the report was closed due to funding cuts and the 2026 report and Mid-Year Update required more intensive support by all partners including the JRC.
In addition, the JRC’s Anomaly Hotspots of Agricultural Production (ASAP) bulletin offers real-time information that feeds into IPC and CH analyses, as well as directly into the GRFC analysis of drivers and structural climatic vulnerabilities.
About the Global Network against Food Crises
Launched in 2016 by the EU, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP), the Global Network against Food Crises aims to better connect, integrate and guide existing initiatives, partnerships, programmes and policy processes to address the root causes of food crises.
Since the launch of the first Global Report on Food Crises the first Global Report on Food Crises in 2016, the EU’s contribution has been based on close coordination among European Commission services, notably the Directorates-General for International Partnerships, European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations, and the JRC.
Over the past 10 years, the Global Report on Food Crises has become one of the main multi-partner initiatives under the Global Network against Food Crises and serves as its flagship publication.
The Global Report on Food Crises 2026 and its Mid-Year Update are the result of a joint, consensus-based assessment of food crises worldwide by GRFC partners, coordinated by FAO and WFP (after the closure of FSIN in 2025).
O artigo foi publicado originalmente em JRC.
