Raising energy and fertilizer prices and upcoming El Niño main concerns to farming

Main findings of the March global overview

1. In Southern Africa, the cereal harvest begins in April, with a generally above-average output projected for 2026. While overall biomass conditions remained at good levels as of March 20, localized extremes—including significant flooding in Madagascar and Mozambique and drought in Angola—have resulted in highly variable production outlooks across the region. Rangeland biomass conditions are good across the region, except for the poor conditions observed in coastal Angola.
2. In East Africa, early intensive rainfall has triggered floods in Kenya, Uganda and southern Ethiopia, while the Horn remains crippled by the lingering effects of the severe drought during the October-December rainy season, particularly in Somalia and southern Ethiopia. In Sudan and South Sudan, ongoing conflict, displacement, restricted humanitarian access and market disruptions are pushing large populations toward famine. While a slightly wetter March–May 2026 season is expected (Copernicus, ICPAC), a developing El Niño in late 2026 threatens northwestern Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Sudan with dry conditions, posing a significant risk to the main agricultural season.
3. In West and central Africa, land preparation and sowing for the first maize season began in March along the Gulf of Guinea under average rainfall conditions. In Sahelian countries, planting activities are expected to start in April. The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) multimodel seasonal rainfall forecast for April–May 2026 predicts average to above-average rainfall, likely supporting crop establishment. However, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization’s Crop Prospects and Food Situation– Triannual global report (March 2026), ongoing conflict in Liptako-Gourma, Lake Chad, and northern Nigeria is expected to continue undermining agricultural productivity throughout 2026.
4. Following a dry start, rainfall since December has improved winter cereal prospects across the Middle East and North Africa. However, crop conditions remain mixed: biomass is below-average in the central and west-central regions of Iran, southern Iraq, and northwest Syria. In contrast, conditions are average to above-average in northern Iran, the main producing areas of northern Iraq, and north-central (Raqqa) and southern Syria. In North Africa, cereal biomass is now near or above-average in most regions, except for Gharb and Tangier-Tetouan in Morocco and Tiaret–Tissemsilt in Algeria. In Yemen, the wheat harvest is progressing favorably; however, acute food insecurity persists, affecting 18 million people due to ongoing socio-economic crises.
5. In Central Asia, winter cereal prospects are favorable thanks to improved rainfall and high temperatures since December. In Afghanistan, prospects for winter cereals are good, though 17 million people face acute food insecurity driven by economic crisis and declining aid. In South Asia, prospects are good in Pakistan and Bangladesh for rabi crops and for irrigated boro rice. In Sri Lanka, the harvest of the main-season maha rice and maize concluded with mixed results due to damage from Cyclone Ditwah.
6. In March, agriculture in Latin America and the Caribbean faced pressure from localized climate extremes and significant economic strain due to rising energy costs. While harvests continued, floods created crises in Colombia, Peru, and Ecuador, while upcoming dry conditions threaten the primera planting season in Central America starting in May. Furthermore, high fuel prices and shortages are disrupting agricultural operations and food security across the region.

The next assessment is scheduled for the end of April 2026.