In short
Winter crop conditions across Europe remain broadly satisfactory, although recent extreme weather has increased regional contrasts. Severe and persistent frost in parts of northern and eastern Europe has heightened concerns about local frost damage, particularly where snow cover was insufficient at the onset of cold spells. Winter wheat is generally well hardened, but more sensitive crops may have been adversely affected. In contrast, abundant rainfall in parts of western France, southern Europe and the western Mediterranean region has replenished soil moisture reserves, but with localised flooding.
This edition includes an extended crop monitoring analysis of the Maghreb, along with an initial yield outlook for winter cereals in the region. Markedly above-average rainfall since late December has significantly improved cereal prospects, particularly in Morocco and northern Algeria, easing prolonged drought conditions and restoring reservoir levels.
Areas of concern
The main area of concern relates to severe frost affecting northern and eastern Europe. Secondary concerns arise from excessive rainfall in parts of western France, south-western Europe and the western Maghreb.
Frost events affecting northern and eastern Europe
Severe frosts occurred in northern Europe and parts of eastern Europe during the reporting period. Winter wheat is generally more resistant to potential frost damage, while winter barley and rapeseed are considered more vulnerable.
- Eastern Poland, the Baltic states and western Ukraine. A major frost event in late January and early February brought minimum temperatures of around – 20 °C and locally between – 25 °C and – 30 °C. Under such conditions, frost damage to winter crops is likely and may occur even where good snow coverage is present, as recorded in most of these regions. However, the spatial extent and agronomic relevance of any damage remain uncertain. A more reliable assessment will be possible once the snow cover has fully melted and crop conditions can be observed.
- North-eastern Germany, Denmark, Sweden, central and western Poland and central Ukraine. Minimum temperatures fell to around – 15 °C during two short cold spells in early and mid February. Despite the shallow snow cover in most of these regions, the risk of significant frost damage is considered low.
Abundant rainfall in central and western Mediterranean regions
Precipitation totals in several regions exceeded twice the latest 10-year average, resulting in localised flooding. While isolated crop damage cannot be excluded, such wet conditions generally prove beneficial in water-limited environments by replenishing reservoirs and groundwater stores.
- Western and southern Italy, western and southern Spain, and Portugal. Between 21 January and 21 February, cumulative precipitation exceeded 250 mm in some areas, compared with typical values of less than 100 mm. No relevant damage to winter crops, which are still in the early growth stages, has been reported.
- Western France. Abundant and persistent rainfall during the reporting period led to flooding along several rivers. Localised waterlogging has been reported in agricultural fields and may adversely affect crop conditions.
- Western Morocco. Rainfall totals up until mid-February reached up to 650 mm. Although flooding in coastal areas might have caused damage to crops locally, the overall improvement in soil moisture is expected to be favourable for winter crop yields at the national scale.
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