El Niño drives crop failure in Central America and East Africa and threatens the next season in Southern Africa, East Africa, Western South America, and Southeast Asia

Main findings of the August global overview

1. Southern Africa’s 2026 aggregate cereal production reached 43.4 million tonnes, nearly 10% above the five-year average. However, ahead of the upcoming summer planting from October to December 2026, severe climate risks are emerging. The Copernicus rainfall forecast predicts widespread drier-than-average conditions across South Africa, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and Madagascar. Conversely, only northeastern Angola, northeastern Zambia, and northern Mozambique are anticipated to receive near-average precipitation, threatening the region’s next crop cycle.
2. Severe heat and prolonged drought across East Africa have severely degraded rangelands, diminished crop yields, and lowered livestock productivity. Although an upcoming El Niño pattern forecasts heavy rainfall, the intense downpours are expected to trigger flooding rather than provide immediate relief. In conflict-ravaged nations like Sudan and South Sudan, these severe climate extremes compound ongoing violence and market disruptions. This overlapping crisis pushes millions toward livelihood collapse and acute starvation, placing 14 areas in the region at immediate risk of famine without urgent, scaled-up humanitarian aid.
3. In West and Central Africa, the first-season maize harvest shows close-to-average production, but mid-August crop conditions remain poor across Nigeria’s Middle Belt, Mali, Burkina Faso, Benin, and Chad due to highly variable rainfall. While September rainfall forecasts predict mostly average conditions, drier-than-average weather threatens southern coasts and central Nigeria. Escalating conflict remains the primary driver of acute food insecurity, particularly across the Sahel, with violence expected to spill over into northern coastal countries.
4. The Middle East and North Africa are seeing strong agricultural recoveries. Winter cereal harvests finalized with good prospects in Syria, Iraq, and Iran, pushing forecast production well above five-year averages despite localized irrigation cuts. Similarly, North Africa concluded its harvest with excellent yields after years of poor performance, driven by winter rains that boosted wheat production across Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia. Meanwhile, Yemen’s sorghum and millet crops show average biomass following improved late-July rainfall. However, ongoing conflict and severe socioeconomic conditions leave 17 million Yemenis facing acute food insecurity.
5. Agricultural prospects are generally favourable across Central and South Asia. Central Asia finalized winter cereal harvests with excellent yields, while Afghanistan expects positive spring and summer crop outputs despite 14 million people facing severe food insecurity. In South Asia, Pakistan faces mixed kharif rice conditions due to monsoon delays, whereas Bangladesh and Sri Lanka enjoy good prospects from abundant rainfall. Similarly, North Korea reports favourable maize and rice outlooks following strong July rains.
6. El Niño-driven climate extremes and socioeconomic shocks are triggering severe agricultural disruptions across Latin America and the Caribbean islands. Severe drought in Central America’s Dry Corridor has devastated maize and bean harvests, prompting national emergencies in Honduras and El Salvador. While South American harvests are largely favourable, an earthquake has strained Colombia’s grain sector, and Peru faces imminent flood threats. Concurrently, political crises in Cuba and gang violence in Haiti further undermine food security. Exacerbated by soaring fertilizer and fuel costs due to the Strait of Hormuz closure, over 3.2 million people in Guatemala now face acute humanitarian crises.

The next assessment is scheduled for the end of September 2026.

O artigo foi publicado originalmente em JRC.