Rising competition for many of the world’s important crops is sending increasing amounts toward uses other than directly feeding people. These competing uses include making biofuels; converting crops into processing ingredients, such as livestock meal, hydrogenated oils and starches; and selling them on global markets to countries that can afford to pay for them.
In a newly published study, my co-authors and I estimate that in 2030, only 29 percent of the global harvests of 10 major crops may be directly consumed as food in the countries where they were produced, down from about 51 percent in the 1960s. We also project that, because of this trend, the world is unlikely to achieve a top sustainable development goal: ending hunger by 2030.
Another 16 percent of harvests of these crops in 2030 will be used as feed for livestock, along with significant portions of the crops that go to processing. This ultimately produces eggs, meat and milk – products that typically are eaten by middle- and upper-income people, rather than those who are undernourished. Diets in poor countries rely on staple foods like rice, corn, bread and vegetable oils.
The crops that we studied – barley, cassava, maize (corn), oil palm, rapeseed (canola), rice, sorghum, soybean, sugar cane and wheat – together account for more than 80 percent of all calories from harvested crops. Our study shows that calorie production in these crops increased by more than 200 percent between the 1960s and the 2010s.
By Deepak Ray
O artigo foi publicado originalmente em Cornell Alliance for Science.
