Widespread ASAP forecast warnings on crops for second half of the year due to upcoming El Niño conditions

Main findings of the April global overview

1. In Southern Africa, the 2025/2026 agricultural season is concluding with summer harvests underway. Regional cereal production is projected to be above average, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization’s Crop Prospects and Food Situation – Triannual global report (March 2026). However, outputs in Angola and Mozambique are expected to decline due to localized dryness and extensive flooding, respectively. Rangelands are generally healthy as of mid-April, however poor conditions in Angola’s western and central coastal provinces may hinder livestock production.
2. Bimodal crop areas in East Africa, including the Belg areas of Ethiopia, and parts of Kenya and South Sudan, are benefiting from early, above-average rains, while in Somalia the Gu rainfall began with a one-month delay. Despite current favourable rains, the October-December 2025 drought and high input costs continue to impact the region. Meanwhile, persistent conflict in Sudan and South Sudan, combined with potential future El Niño risks, is driving a severe livelihood crisis and raising the risk of famine in the region.
3. In West and central Africa, timely March rains have benefited maize planting across the Gulf of Guinea. While slight delays occurred in parts of Nigeria, Benin, Togo, and Ghana, there is potential for recovery. Northern regions remain seasonally dry, with planting expected to start in June. The Copernicus forecast  for May–June 2026 suggests average rainfall for most areas, though western regions may experience drier conditions. Despite favorable weather, persistent conflict and insecurity continue to cause mass displacement and disrupt agricultural livelihoods, severely threatening food access across West Africa.
4. Improved rainfall since December has boosted winter cereal prospects across the Middle East and North Africa, following a dry start to the season. While Syria, northern Iraq, and parts of Iran show favorable growth, southern Iraq and central and west-central Iran face output declines due to irrigation cuts and reduced sowing. North Africa anticipates a strong harvest after years of poor yields, despite localized flooding in Morocco. Yemen also sees positive wheat and sorghum outlooks; however, conflict and economic instability keep food insecurity critically high for 17 million people.
5. Improved rainfall and high temperatures have boosted winter cereal prospects across Central Asia, with strong harvests expected in Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Afghanistan also shows favourable growth, though economic crisis, recurrent drought, declining aid and remittances leave 14 million people acutely food insecure. In South Asia, harvests in Pakistan and Bangladesh remain positive, while Sri Lanka’s second-season planting proceeds under average conditions. Conversely, North Korea faces a drier-than-average start to its maize sowing, despite steady early growth for wheat and barley crops.
6. In Latin America and the Caribbean, harvest of main crops is ongoing, though prior excessive rainfall may have reduced yields. While Central America prepares for sowing, Copernicus C3S Multimodel predicts severe dryness through August, threatening sensitive growth stages from Colombia to the Caribbean. Conversely, Ecuador, Peru, and Bolivia expect above-normal rainfall. Regionally, the energy crisis and fuel price spikes tied to the Iran conflict are disrupting agricultural operations. In the region it is estimated that 19 million people face acute food insecurity (2026 Global Report on Food Crises (FAO,WFP & GNAFC)).

The next assessment is scheduled for the end of May 2026.