In short
Crop conditions across Europe remain generally favourable as the season progresses, supported by mild temperatures and adequate soil moisture in many regions. Winter crops are developing under mostly good conditions, while spring sowing campaigns are advancing across much of the EU.
Persistent rainfall deficits in central, northern and eastern Europe since March are raising concerns as crop water demand increases in spring, although soil moisture remains sufficient so far. In contrast, excess rainfall in south-western and parts of eastern Europe has led to waterlogging locally, and short cold spells may have caused limited damage to sensitive crops in some regions. Weather forecasts indicate continued dry conditions in parts of central Europe and cooler conditions in the east, which may prolong emerging moisture deficits and slow crop development in affected regions. Crop yield forecasts across Europe remain broadly in line with historical trends.
This edition includes an extended analysis of Türkiye, where wet and variable conditions have resulted in heterogeneous crop development, with delays in eastern regions and more favourable prospects in the west.
Areas of concern
Emerging water deficit in central, northern and eastern Europe
Precipitation has been below average since late winter in several regions. While soil moisture remains sufficient, continued dry conditions may become a concern as crop water demand increases towards flowering.
- Eastern Germany and Poland: A prolonged rainfall deficit has persisted since early March, reducing soil moisture. Although recent rainfall has partly alleviated the situation, additional precipitation will be needed to support growth in the coming weeks.
- Austria, Slovenia, Hungary, Slovakia, Czechia and neighbouring regions: Winter crops are at normal to advanced stages, and limited precipitation since early March has led to emerging soil moisture deficits. Some rainfall around mid March partially alleviated depletion. While conditions are not yet critical, the situation requires monitoring, particularly where crop development is soon due to become more advanced.
- Western and northern Ukraine: Winter crops restarted their vegetative growth under a precipitation deficit. Soil moisture is not yet at a critical level, since water requirements are still low, but water stress could develop rapidly without more rain arriving.
Minor water deficit in northern and central Italy
In parts of northern Italy, a persistent precipitation deficit has prompted some farmers to irrigate winter crops, especially those intended for green harvest. No impact on cereals has been observed so far, but additional rainfall is needed to maintain yield potential. In western central regions, soil moisture is also declining; here, the concern is mainly linked to well-above-average temperatures, which have accelerated depletion and brought crops closer to water stress.
Abundant precipitation in southern Italy and south-eastern Türkiye
In southern Italy, between late March and early April, persistent rainfall has caused crop lodging and waterlogging in the main durum wheat areas. Crops may still recover, as flowering has not yet started. In south-eastern Türkiye, a very wet start to spring has significantly delayed winter crops; although some recovery to average conditions is likely, full yield potential already appears compromised.
Localised frost events in north-eastern Hungary, north-western Romania and Türkiye
Short cold spells with minimum temperatures locally falling below – 5 °C occurred around the rapeseed flowering and grain-filling phases. While no widespread damage has been reported, localised impacts cannot be excluded. In central Türkiye, the temperature drop did not damage crops but further slowed winter crop growth, which was already somewhat delayed.
Sowing delays in Ireland
Continuous rainfall since winter has led to saturated soils and limited field accessibility. As a result, delays in the sowing of spring barley have been reported, particularly in central regions.
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