ASAP assessment August 2025

1. The main-season cereal harvest has been completed in southern Africa. Aggregate cereal production is estimated to be close to the five-year average (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Crop Prospects and Food Situation (July 2025)). The Copernicus rainfall forecast for September–November 2025 indicates average to slightly wetter-than-average conditions across most parts of the region except for most parts of Angola, coastal Namibia and north-western South Africa, where drier-than-average conditions are forecast.
2. In the northern part of East Africa, heavy rainfall in August has resulted in flooding across Ethiopia, South Sudan and Sudan. The flooding events follow early-season drought conditions, which is an unfavourable sequence of events for agricultural production. In bimodal areas in the Horn and further to the south, the first agricultural season outcomes are mixed, with variability observed within countries such as Somalia, South Sudan, and Uganda. In contrast, outcomes are generally positive in Burundi, Rwanda, and the United Republic of Tanzania. Rangeland areas are faring better, except for areas affected by floods, where there is an increased risk of diseases and livestock losses. The forecast from the 71st Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum for October to December points to below-average rainfall across much of the region.
3. In West and central Africa, seasonal rainfall conditions have been mixed, with average to above-average rainfall over the past month in the Sahelian zone and abnormally dry conditions in the Gulf of Guinea countries. Poor crop and rangeland conditions are observed in northern Benin, eastern Burkina Faso, southern Chad, Ghana, central Nigeria and northern Togo. Drops in agricultural production are expected in areas affected by floods and conflict. As reported by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, at 21 August 26 000 ha of agricultural land were impassable for agricultural and livestock production due to severe flooding. Conflict and insecurity continue to impede agricultural activities in parts of the region (Liptako-Gourma region, Lake Chad Basin, northern Nigeria).
4. In the Middle East and North Africa, the harvesting of winter wheat and barley has been completed, with mixed results. The harvest was close to average in Algeria, Iran and Iraq, poor in Morocco, very poor in Syria and above average in Tunisia. Rice production has been banned in the main producing governorates of Iraq to save water, whereas it is estimated to be close to average in northern Iran. In Yemen, conditions were drier than average during the first (saif) and second (kharif) rainfall seasons, and, despite increased rainfall in the second dekad of August, crop conditions remain below average.
5. In central Asia, the harvesting of winter wheat has been completed, with average (Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan) to above-average (Tajikistan, Uzbekistan) production prospects. In contrast, in southern Kazakhstan and northern Kyrgyzstan, winter wheat yield prospects are below average. In Afghanistan, irrigated summer crop conditions are favourable, except in the north-west and parts of Samangan and Badakhshan. In South Asia, major flooding in Pakistan caused damage to recently planted kharif crops. In Bangladesh, planting of aman rice was completed in August under favourable moisture conditions. In Sri Lanka, the harvesting of second-season yala rice and maize is under way, with favourable prospects. In North Korea, biomass of rice and maize (the harvesting of which is under way) is above average.
6. In Latin America and the Caribbean islands, poor vegetation conditions are observed in large areas of cropland in Guatemala and in Nicaragua. In Honduras and El Salvador, vegetation conditions are generally average to above average, except in the departments of Santa Bárbara and Cortés (Honduras) and localised areas of Santa Ana and Sonsonate (El Salvador). In the Andean region, poor vegetation activity is observed in key grain-producing departments in Colombia (Huila, Norte de Santander, Tolima) and Ecuador (Guayas, Los Ríos). In the Caribbean, the harvest prospects are mixed, with Haiti’s maize harvest prospects being favourable and Cuba’s crops being affected by rainfall deficits.

The next assessment is scheduled for the end of September 2025.