Fair yield outlook, but reduced production areas in Ukraine

The September edition of the JRC MARS Bulletin in the global outlook series on Ukraine, shows that the country experienced mixed weather conditions throughout the summer of 2022.

In the southern and western oblasts long lasting rain deficits negatively affected yield potentials, while timely rainfall in some central and northern oblasts led to increased yield forecasts in these regions. Eastern oblasts experienced above-average temperatures, but these did not cause any severe damage to summer crops.

Fair yields but below-average production outlook for summer crops
Winter cereals’ yield forecasts are below the historical trend but still around the 5-year average, albeit well below last year’s record level. An increase in area under rapeseed led to significantly increased production of this crop.

Russia’s war against Ukraine has seen a decrease in the area under grain maize and sunflowers. Consequently, our production forecasts for both crops is below the 5-year average, despite fair yield outlooks.

Fair yield outlooks, combined with stable planting area for soybean leads to near average production.

Part of production areas impacted by Russia’s war against Ukraine
Based on our regional forecasts, we estimate that 22% of soft wheat production, 20% of the barley, 13% of the rapeseed, 4% of the grain maize, 10% of the sunflowers, and 7% of the soybean production at country level is in areas currently subject to hostilities due to Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine, which is likely to reduce harvestable crops and thus final production figures.

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Artigo publicado originalmente em Comissão Europeia.