In short…
The 2026 summer crop season is drawing to a close, with harvesting well advanced across most of Europe. EU yield forecasts have changed relatively little since last month and are below the five-year average for most crops. Slight revisions further downwards have been made in some regions where persistent adverse soil moisture conditions reduced yields and delayed harvests.
The new winter cropping season faces contrasting challenges. Low soil moisture is hampering rapeseed emergence and winter cereal establishment across drought-affected regions, resulting in uneven crop development. In contrast, excessive rainfall in the Baltic states and Finland has delayed winter crop sowing, with potential reductions in the winter crop area, particularly in the Baltic states.
Forecast rainfall across most of Europe may improve soil moisture and support winter crop establishment, while drier conditions forecast in the Baltic states could help mitigate waterlogging.
Areas of concern
Persistently low soil moisture across parts of western, central and south-eastern Europe is hampering rapeseed emergence and early development, while raising concerns for winter cereal establishment. In contrast, prolonged rainfall in the Baltic states and Finland has caused waterlogging, delaying winter crop sowing and locally preventing the completion of harvesting.
Alerts
Water deficit
Persistent rainfall deficits and low soil moisture have hampered rapeseed sowing and emergence across several regions. Winter cereal sowing has generally progressed within the optimal window, although further rainfall is needed to support seedbed preparation and crop establishment.
- France, southern Belgium, Luxembourg and southern Germany: Persistent dryness has hampered rapeseed emergence, resulting in patchy crop establishment in several areas. Winter cereal sowing has also progressed more slowly in parts of France and the Benelux countries, while recent rainfall improved sowing conditions and early establishment in southern Germany. Further rainfall is needed to support crop establishment.
- Eastern Germany and western Poland: Rainfall deficits since September have led to declining soil moisture levels, although conditions are less severe than previously farther south. Winter crop sowing progressed satisfactorily, but insufficient soil moisture now raises concerns about crop emergence and establishment before winter dormancy.
- Austria, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, Croatia, western Romania and north-western Bulgaria: Persistent water deficits continue to constrain winter crop establishment, despite some rainfall in parts of the region. Rapeseed sowing and emergence have been particularly affected in Hungary, Slovakia, Croatia and neighbouring areas, with patchy development and a possible reduction in sown area. Winter cereal sowing has started somewhat later than usual in some regions but generally remains within the optimal window.
- Central and southern Italy: Low soil moisture is constraining seedbed preparation and the start of winter crop sowing. However, the relatively long sowing window still allows sufficient time for field operations.
Water excess
Prolonged rainfall has caused widespread soil waterlogging in northern Europe, hampering field operations and, in some areas, preventing the completion of harvesting and winter crop sowing.
- Baltic states: Persistent rainfall has left soils waterlogged, bringing winter crop sowing to a standstill in some regions. With the sowing window about to close, the winter crop area is expected to decrease, with some fields likely to be sown with spring crops instead.
- Finland: Excessively wet soils have delayed the harvesting of spring and summer crops, preventing its completion in some areas. Winter crop sowing has also been affected locally, although winter crops account for only a small share of the cultivated area.
- Türkiye: above-average precipitation and reduced radiation have proven unfavourable for the grain-filling stage of maize, slightly lowering the otherwise very good yield outlook.
Previously reported impacts on spring and summer crops
Northern Spain, France, Benelux countries, southern Germany, Italy, Austria, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, Croatia, western Romania and parts of Ukraine: Impacts documented in earlier editions of the bulletin persisted through the end of the season across large parts of western, central and south-eastern Europe. September rainfall offered some relief but arrived too late to reverse earlier yield losses. In several of these regions (e.g. France, southern Germany, Austria, Slovakia, Slovenia and Croatia) crops further deteriorated in September owing to insufficient soil moisture.
O artigo foi publicado originalmente em JRC.
