The experts of the Copa and Cogeca Working Parties for Cereals, Oilseeds and Protein Crops (respectively) predict a very poor year for EU cereals in 2024, a stable year for oilseeds whilst for protein crops the results should be more positive, but the situation could further worsen. The EU-27 cereal production should reach 257.3 million tonnes, recording a decrease of -4.7% compared to the harvest in 2023. Meanwhile the oilseeds production is expected to drop by -1.0% with 31.9 million tonnes, and protein crops will experience a boost of 13% with 3.9 million tonnes.
The yields for cereals are currently expected to slightly decrease for 2024 (-1.2%) and considering a decrease of the area sown (-3.5%), the results for the harvest should be below 2023. It is interesting to note quite a decrease in wheat (-6.3%) and barley (-9%) production while maize remains stable (-0.5%) and oat has slightly increased (+21.2%). Regarding the geographical distribution of the production, most Northern (Belgium, France, Denmark, Germany) and Central/Eastern Member States have experienced a drop in production, sometimes quite consequential (-3 million tonnes for Poland, -9 million tonnes for France), that is not really compensated by a serious increase of production in Spain compared to 2023 (+3 million tonnes for Spain). Overall, this places 2024 below 2023 (which was already a poor year), but also very below the grain production trim average of the last 5 years (-8.4%). This already worrying forecast might very well worsen in the coming weeks and months, due to the complicated weather events and the impossibility of working in the fields, sowing was thus delayed in many areas making yields very sensitive to weather conditions in the coming weeks.
For oilseeds the situation is quite stable with a small decrease in the area (-1.6%) but slightly improving yields (+0.7%) which led to a small production decrease compared to 2023 (-1.0%) mainly due to a reduction of both the sown area and the yields for rapeseed. However, compared to the 5 years trim average, this year remains quite positive (+6.3%). When it comes to the situation in individual Member States, it is quite evenly distributed, we can only note an important increase in Spain (+50% y/y) explained by the extremely poor year that they had in 2022, while in Poland the reduction of production is quite high compared to other countries (-15% y/y). Regarding protein crops the situation is overall very positive except in France where we expect a year-to-year reduction of 16% mainly due to yields. However, for both oilseeds and protein crops, as it is for cereals, the coming weeks will be crucial and might very well change the situation.
Fonte: Copa Cogeca
