Main findings of the November global overview
- In southern Africa, cumulative rainfall was average during the early vegetative stages of summer cereal crops. However, there were delays in the start of the season in central and northern parts of Angola, central and southern Mozambique and most of Zambia and Zimbabwe. The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) multimodel seasonal rainfall forecast for December 2025 to February 2026 points to average rainfall across the region except for north-western Angola and far northern Zambia, where drier-than-average conditions are forecast.
- In East Africa, large areas of the Horn are experiencing drought conditions linked to the ongoing La Niña event, more specifically southern Ethiopia, Somalia and coastal parts of Kenya. Seasonal failure in the Horn will add further stress to food security in areas where population numbers in acute food insecurity status are already high, with over 34 million people across six Intergovernmental Authority on Development member states – Djibouti, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda – in Integrated Food Security Phase Classification phase 3 or worse. Unimodal areas in the northern part of the region are reaching harvesting time and have generally performed well, with the exception of flooded areas in South Sudan, Ethiopia and parts of Sudan.
- In West and central Africa, the main season is complete and cereal production is preliminarily forecast at 83.1 million tonnes, almost 10 % above the five-year average (Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, ‘Crop prospects and food situation’, November 2025). However, production shortfalls are expected in Benin, Chad, Ghana, Nigeria and Togo. Pastoral conditions are generally good across the region, and good livestock production is expected except in northern Benin, southern Chad, south-western Ghana and the middle belt of Nigeria.
- In the Middle East and North Africa, the sowing of winter cereals is under way under drier-than-average conditions. However, rainfall improved in mid November and is forecast to be close to average from December 2025 to the end of April 2026 (Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) multimodel seasonal rainfall forecast). In the highlands of Yemen, the harvest of kharif cereals was finalised with good prospects, and prospects are also good in the coastal areas, where sorghum millet and maize will be harvested from December 2025 to January 2026.
- In central Asia, although the sowing of winter cereals was finalised under drier-than-average conditions in most areas, crop biomass is close to average thanks to irrigation. Close-to-average rainfall is expected from December or January to March (Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) multimodel seasonal rainfall forecast). In Afghanistan, the planting of winter wheat and barley was completed under drier-than-average conditions, a situation that is forecast to persist in December. In South Asia, the harvest of kharif crops in Pakistan and the harvest of aman rice in Bangladesh are ongoing or nearing completion with good prospects. In North Korea, sowings of wheat and barley were finalised in November under favourable conditions.
- Harvest prospects vary across Latin America, with generally favourable conditions reported in Central America for Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, while Nicaragua faces poor prospects in key regions. In the Andean region, large areas of cropland in Colombia (Boyaca, Casanare, Huila, Meta, Norte de Santander, Tolima, Valle del Cauca) and in Peru (Arequipa, Cajamarca) are presenting poor vegetation conditions. Moreover, maize and rice in Bolivia are in the sowing stage, with poor vegetation conditions affecting nearly one third of the total cropland area of Santa Cruz, Bolivia’s grain basket. The Caribbean reports mostly favourable outcomes for Haiti and Cuba, but concerns exist in Cuba regarding inadequate rainfall in specific provinces impacting harvesting and sowing stages.
The next assessment is scheduled for the end of January 2026.
O artigo foi publicado originalmente em JRC.
