Droughts and high temperatures across EU producing countries are expected to have a toll on the 2022/23 olive oil and table olives production. According to current estimates, the total EU olive oil production will fall short of 1,500 thousand tonnes, which represents a drop of more than 35% from the previous marketing year 2021/22 (2,264 thousand tonnes). A similar downward trend is foreseen for table olives (-30%).
Particularly worrying is the situation in Spain, the EU’s largest producing country, where droughts and high temperatures have affected the development of the olive fruit. Dry lands are unlikely to give any fruit, whereas production in irrigated lands can be saved only if it rains in the next month prior to the harvest. Even according to the most optimistic estimates, production is expected to plummet to almost half of the previous marketing year’s production (1,488 thousand tonnes). Spanish olive growers are bracing for even lower yields in 2022/23 should it continue not to rain. If the current drought persists, next year’s production will also be affected.
In Italy, the olive oil production is expected to be reduced by 30% compared to last year (329 thousand tonnes). The drop is due to production alternation, aggravated by the drought, which plunged olive groves into water stress, and phytosanitary issues.
The olive oil production in Greece is expected to be significantly improved (+29%) compared to last year (227 thousand tonnes). The forecast figures are subject to changes depending on the phytosanitary issues in Crete.
Following a record production in 2021/22 (206 thousand tonnes), olive growers in Portugal expect this year’s harvest to fall by 40%, slightly below the 5-year average. The main drivers for this are the drought and production alternation.
In France, the high temperatures at the time of flowering limited fruit formation whereas the subsequent summer drought caused it to drop. As a result, a -44% production is foreseen.
Regarding the forecast for table olives, current estimates indicate a similar trend as for olive oil. Producers in Spain expect a 35% drop, whereas their Italian colleagues foresee a decrease of up to 25%. The yield reduction in Portugal is expected to range between 25 and 50%. French producers expect a 42% drop.
Mr Francisco Molina, Chairman of the Copa-Cogeca Working Party on Olives & Olive Oil, commented , “In a year profoundly marked by climate change, rising energy and raw material prices, a slashed harvest is putting the sector in a very complex situation. The reduced availability coupled with a dramatic rise in production costs will inadvertently push price lists higher up. Should the forecast be confirmed, the difficulties faced by producers and consumers alike will affect the entire value chain.”
Artigo publicado originalmente em Copa Cogeca.
