Drought and conflict drive acute food insecurity in East Africa; mixed winter cereal prospects for the Middle East

Main findings of the February global overview

1. In Southern Africa, despite a rainfall deficit between late January and mid-February, crop and rangeland conditions remain largely good due to favorable rains earlier in the season. However, persistent dryness has impacted crop conditions in central and coastal Angola. Intense La Niña-linked rainfall and tropical systems, including Cyclone Gezani in February, caused devastating floods across Mozambique and Madagascar. While extreme weather caused significant agricultural losses, overall pastoral biomass has improved, supporting livestock health and water availability across the region.
2. In East Africa, severe drought in southern Ethiopia and Somalia has caused widespread crop failure, rapid rangeland degradation, and livestock losses. Particularly alarming is the situation in Somalia where crop production in some areas is estimated at 83% below the long-term average. Moreover, intense conflict in Sudan and South Sudan is exacerbating food insecurity. While March–May 2026 forecasts suggest improved rainfall, it will not reverse the impact of the climatic and socio-economic extremes experienced by the region in recent years. Consequently, approximately 38 million people across six IGAD member states (Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, and Sudan) face acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or worse).
3. In West and central Africa, the main season is complete and cereal production is preliminarily forecast at 83.1 million tonnes, almost 10 % above the five-year average (Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, ‘Crop prospects and food situation’, November 2025). However, production shortfalls are expected in Benin, Chad, Ghana, Nigeria and Togo. Pastoral vegetation conditions was generally good across the region, however, pasture development was below average in northern Benin, southern Chad, south-western Ghana and the middle belt of Nigeria.
4. In the Middle East and North Africa, winter cereal prospects are mixed following a dry start to the season. While December rains improved conditions for rainfed crops, regional disparities persist. Syria faces poor outlooks in the northwest due to reduced sowing, and southern Iraq is affected from irrigation cuts. In North Africa, good cereal conditions are observed in most areas, though delayed growth affects western Algeria, central-eastern Morocco (Tadla-Azilal, Meknes, Oriental), and north-eastern Tunisia. Yemen shows favourable wheat prospects; however severe food insecurity is impacting 18 million out of 40 million people.
5. In Central Asia, following a dry start, increased rainfall and warmer temperatures since December and February, respectively, have boosted biomass to average or above-average levels across the region. Afghanistan’s wheat and barley are emerging from dormancy under favourable moisture conditions, though 17 million people still face acute food insecurity. In South Asia, in Pakistan and Bangladesh, conditions are favourable for rabi crops and irrigated boro rice, respectively. Conversely, Sri Lanka faces mixed harvest prospects for the main-season maha rice and maize crops due to late-2025 cyclone damage. North Korean cereals remain in dormancy.
6. In Latin America and the Caribbean, the apante cycle (maize and beans) shows favorable prospects, except in Cuba, where a fuel blockade and Hurricane Melissa have crippled production. In Haiti, positive harvests of third maize cycle are overshadowed by violence and inflation. Colombia has declared an emergency due to massive flooding submerging 80% of Córdoba, a key cereal region. While Ecuador and Peru were benefited from improved rains, Peru’s southern corridor remains affected by earlier deficits.  In Bolivia, a national fuel crisis and rising violence in Ecuador are increasingly straining the regional agricultural sector.

The next assessment is scheduled for the end of March 2026.