The experts from Copa and Cogeca’s Cereals and Oilseeds and Protein Crops Working Parties predict a general increase of the EU’s cereals, oilseeds, and protein crop production in 2023, despite an anticipated serious decrease of production in Spain. The EU-27 cereal production should reach 277 million tonnes (+4.6% compared to the 2022 harvest). A similar positive trend is expected for oilseeds (34.1 million tonnes; +8.2%) and protein crops (3.9 million tonnes; +5%).
Despite a reduction of the area sown in 2023 (-3,8%), the expected high yields for cereals should ensure a better outcome than that of 2022. This trend is driven partly by the higher yields expected for grain maize with a production that should reach 62 million tonnes (+21.7% compared to 2022). Production was severely affected last year in some Eastern Member States. Barley and durum wheat should face a drop of -2.3% and -7.1% respectively, while common wheat should increase to 128 million tonnes (+2.8%). Spain will be severely affected by the ongoing drought with its overall grain production being reduced by nearly 9 million tonnes. Overall, the 2023 harvest should be higher than that of 2022, but will still be a little below the grain production average of the last 5 years.
For oilseeds, the situation is also quite positive thanks to a slight increase in area (+2.1%) and higher yields, which has resulted in a production of 14.4% higher than the last 5-year average. This is especially linked to an expected increase of 18.5% in sunflower production due to higher yields while the sowing area has been slightly reduced. For soybeans the production is expected to increase by 9.7% within a similar sowing area. The EU-27 production of protein crops should increase thanks to a higher production of peas and beans (+9% and +11% respectively) despite a reduction of sweet lupins (-29%).
These positive results can be explained partly by very good conditions for the development of the winter crops in Northern Europe and better weather conditions in general in Eastern Europe. The severe drought in Spain and in other more circumscribed regions, as well as the fact that input costs remain very high (fertilisers, energy), and despite some decreases in the past months, these will certainly limit the positive results for the 2023 harvest.
Artigo publicado originalmente em Copa Cogeca.
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