Summer drought reduces yields in south-east Europe

In short

The September 2025 JRC MARS Bulletin confirms that drought and repeated heatwaves during summer in south-eastern Europe have led to irreversible yield losses in Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and parts of Türkiye. Summer crops such as maize and sunflower are most affected, with forecasts well below the five-year average. Elsewhere, heatwaves and dry spells alternated with moderate and rainy periods, providing generally favourable crop conditions. While western and central Europe experienced mixed but stable yields, above-average harvests are expected in northern Europe. Irrigation has maintained fair crop expectations in the Iberian peninsula.

Overall prospects for rice are positive, with Italy, Spain, Portugal and France showing strong yield potential, whereas southern Spain, Bulgaria, Romania and Greece face a mediocre to poor outlook. The overall EU rice yield is forecast to reach 6 % above the five-year average.

This edition features an extended section on crop monitoring and yield forecasting for Türkiye alongside an in-depth analysis of rice in Europe’s main cultivating areas.

Alerts for dry summer risks

Northern Germany: A prolonged rainfall deficit has reduced soil moisture, although some precipitation occurred in early September. Crops have not been strongly impacted so far, and forecasts indicate possible rainfall that could mitigate yield deterioration.
Easternmost Poland: Overall conditions are favourable, but a persistent lack of precipitation in the easternmost regions has reduced green maize and sunflower yield expectations locally.
Eastern Hungary: Since the beginning of summer, very low precipitation has been observed, and crop yield prospects are now deteriorating.
Southern Romania and Bulgaria: Very poor summer crop growth has resulted from drought conditions exacerbated by repeated heatwaves in July and August, with very low yields expected for maize, sunflower and soybean.
Southern Türkiye: Very high August temperatures and persistently low soil moisture could result in the further deterioration of summer crop yields.

Impacts already observed in summer crops

Eastern Hungary, southern Romania, Bulgaria and the very easternmost part of Croatia: The very poor summer crop growth in these regions is linked to drought conditions that are still ongoing.
Western France: Hot and dry conditions at the beginning of August accelerated the senescence phase of summer crops.
Southern Germany: Pest presence in June and July constrained sugar beet growth.
Central Italy: Unfavourable July conditions reduced sunflower yield outlook.
Central Greece: The lack of rainfall and poor replenishment of reservoirs continued in August, keeping yield expectations low.
Türkiye and southern and eastern Ukraine: Prolonged very hot and dry summer conditions caused below-average summer crop development that the moderate weather of the past week could not sufficiently mitigate.

Further agricultural information

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