Drought conditions were particularly intense in March, negatively affecting the photosynthesis of winter cereals since the flowering stage, and accelerating ripening in April at the expense of primary production. This resulted in a downward revision of yield forecasts and in high probability of crop failures for several cereal-producing regions of the Maghreb. On the other hand, average to above-average production is expected in Libya and Egypt, where weather conditions have been more favourable and most of the crops are irrigated.
Highlights
- Morocco (MA): negative outlook for cereal production. Barley and wheat performed badly in most of the main regions. Cereals are in an advanced ripening stage.
- Algeria (DZ): crop growth is well below average in most of the main cereal-producing regions. Drought was most pronounced during the flowering and grain filling stages. Cereals are in an advanced ripening stage.
- Tunisia (TN): a compromised season is confirmed. High probability of crop failures in the northern inland regions.
- Libya (LY): average to positive growing conditions due to moderate fluctuations of daily temperatures despite below-average rainfall. Cereals are ready for harvesting.
- Egypt (EG): average to above-average expectations for cereal production. Crops are faring well thanks to the predominately irrigated arable land. Harvesting is about to begin.
Observed canopy conditions
NDVI relative anomaly maps: the maps display differences between the Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (fAPAR) computed from remote sensing imagery between 11 February to 10 May 2023, and the medium-term average (2013-2022) fAPAR for the same period. Positive anomalies (in green) reflect above-average canopy density, while negative anomalies (in red) reflect below-average canopy density.
Yield forecasts
Further information
JRC MARS (Monitoring Agricultural Resources) Bulletins
The latest information about global agricultural production hotspots for countries at risk of food insecurity is available on the JRC’s ASAP (Anomaly hot Spots of Agricultural Production).
O artigo foi publicado originalmente em JRC.
