ASAP assessment January 2025

Main findings of the January global overview:

1. In southern Africa, persistent drought conditions and above-average temperatures in December 2024 affected crop development and pasture regeneration, mainly in Botswana, Madagascar, Malawi, most parts of Mozambique, northern Namibia, most parts of Zambia and Zimbabwe. Tropical cyclone Chido and tropical cyclone Dikeledi brought heavy rainfall and strong winds and resulted in a large number of casualties and severe damage in Madagascar, Malawi and Mozambique. The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) multimodel seasonal rainfall forecast indicates that there will be average to above-average rainfall in most parts of the region between February and March 2025, except for northern Angola and western South Africa, where drier-than-average conditions are forecast.
2. In East Africa, low Deyr-season production is expected in southern Somalia and a rapid decline of pastoral vegetation is being observed in parts of southern Ethiopia, in north-eastern Kenya and in southern and central Somalia. By contrast, crop prospects are positive for bimodal areas in Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda. In war-torn Sudan, main-season production in 2024 is likely to have been below average due to flooding and the conflict, and the currently growing irrigated wheat crops are also showing areas where cultivation is being limited by the conflict. More than 38 million people in six member states of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Djibouti, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda) are in Integrated Food Security Phase Classification phase 3 or worse.
3. In West and central Africa, the main season is complete and cereal production is preliminarily forecasted to reach 76.5 million tonnes, that is, slightly above the five-year average (Food and Agricultural Organization, Crop Prospects and Food Situation, November 2024).
4. In the Middle East, the biomass condition of winter wheat and barley is mixed: it is below-average in northern Iraq and in Syria and average to above-average in most of Iran and in southern Iraq. In Yemen, the biomass of irrigated wheat, to be harvested from February 2025, in the central highlands and the eastern plateau is above-average; however, food insecurity continues to affect 19 million people out of the country’s population of 30 million. In North Africa, very low rainfall since November 2024 has resulted in the condition of cereals being poor to very poor in Algeria (except in the north-east), Morocco and the centre-west of Tunisia. Low rainfall is forecast for February and March 2025, which suggests pessimistic prospects for winter cereals in most areas.
5. In central Asia, winter wheat and barley are in dormancy in most areas. In Afghanistan, low rainfall in the last three months may not have an impact on winter wheat (which is mostly irrigated and in dormancy in most regions), but is likely to reduce the amount of irrigation water available for spring and summer crops. In South Asia, biomass conditions for rabi crops in Pakistan are good, while in Bangladesh the planting of boro rice is under way under favourable conditions. In Sri Lanka, biomass conditions of main-season maha rice and maize are good.
6. South-East Asia is no longer monitored by Anomaly Hotspots of Agricultural Production (ASAP). If specifically requested, an ad hoc analysis can be conducted for any country in the region (please contact us by email: JRC-ASAPec [dot] europa [dot] eu (JRC-ASAP[at]ec[dot]europa[dot]eu)). ASAP continues to monitor only North Korea, where winter wheat and barley are in dormancy under close-to-average biomass conditions.
7. In Latin America and the Caribbean islands, in Bolivia, Cuba and Haiti, the harvest is about to start, with mixed prospects. The prospects for the harvest of rice in the main producing department of Bolivia (Santa Cruz) are poor. The postrera harvest has been concluded, with good prospects, except in central Guatemala and localised areas of northern Honduras and south Nicaragua. In Bolivia, Colombia and Peru, despite adequate rainfall, significant areas of cropland in key producing departments show poor vegetation conditions. According to the Copernicus C3S multimodel seasonal rainfall forecast, above-average rainfall conditions are forecast for Bolivia, Central America, Colombia and Peru in February and March 2025. By contrast, in Cuba, Ecuador and Haiti, drier-than-average conditions are forecast for the same period.

The next assessment is scheduled for the end of February 2025.

O artigo foi publicado originalmente em JRC.