turned on their head by poor weather conditions across Europe. The overall EU production for oilseeds and protein crops despite dramatic situations in Spain and Italy remain correct. However, for cereals the situation is extremely worrying with an expected production of 256 million tonnes, possibly the worst harvest since 2007 and 10% below the last 5-year average. Many farmers will not be able to cover their production costs, this is why Copa and Cogeca are launching an urgent call to action to face this difficult situation in 2023 and its consequences for 2024.
During the beginning of May it was made clear already that some Member States, such as Spain, Portugal, or Northern Italy would suffer severe losses (up to 50%). However, at the time Copa and Cogeca’s forecasts were still estimating that the EU’s overall production would remain stable thanks to an improvement of weather conditions in Northern and Eastern Europe. Unfortunately, since then the situation has dramatically deteriorated.
Droughts have hit again across all the EU in May and June, with no precipitations at all in some regions. We are now expecting a serious reduction of the production, especially for cereals, not only in Spain, Portugal, or Italy (up to -60% compared to 2022), but all over the EU (e.g., Romania -20%, Finland -30%, Poland – 14%, Lithuania -35% compared to the May forecast). These low cereal production numbers will be accompanied by a serious issue of quality in many regions. Although for oilseeds and protein crops the expected production remains decent (32 million tonnes for oilseeds, 3.8 for protein crops), the weather impact on the quality could seriously reduce profitability.
Artigo publicado originalmente em Copa Cogeca.
