In short…
Winter crops remain generally resilient, with overall good yield prospects at the EU level and exceptionally high expectations in Spain, Portugal, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece and also the Baltics.
Distinct regional variations in crop development are being monitored across the EU and neighbouring areas. Persisting drought in western Belgium, central France, eastern Germany, western Poland, and Hungary is increasingly affecting yield potential, particularly for spring and summer crops. In contrast, yield reductions due to rainfall excess are expected for winter crops in northern Italy, while, in southern and central Germany, pest outbreaks threaten root and tuber crops.
In eastern Ukraine, Türkiye, Cyprus and the western Maghreb, the irreversible impacts of prolonged drought and heat have led to a significant reduction in winter crop outcomes.
Despite a delayed sowing campaign, rice is benefiting from improved water availability, with yield forecasts above the five-year average.
Areas of concern
Persistent rainfall deficit across Europe
- A significant spring rainfall deficit (of ca 50 %) persists in western Belgium and the south-western Netherlands. The grain filling of cereals has been negatively affected, and summer crops are under pressure. With no rainfall forecast, the situation is likely to deteriorate.
- In eastern Germany and western Poland, precipitation was below average but well distributed and ideal for the water-depleted soils; no significant impact on winter crops in the grain-filling stage has yet been observed. However, with little or no rainfall forecast, conditions could deteriorate for winter and spring crops.
- In central France, precipitation deficits have worsened since mid May. With winter crops currently at the grain-filling stage, prolonged unfavourable conditions may reduce yield expectations.
- Hungary, Slovenia and northernmost Croatia have experienced precipitation deficits since late May. Although the season remains positive for winter crops, continued soil moisture depletion threatens the yield potential of summer crops.
Drought impacts in Türkiye, Ukraine, western Maghreb and Cyprus
- In Türkiye, extensive agricultural areas continue to suffer from rainfall deficits, often combined with high temperatures. Winter crop yields have been further reduced in the south-eastern regions.
- Impacts are also evident in eastern Ukraine, western Maghreb and Cyprus, where a dry winter and/or spring have resulted in unfavourable growing conditions, and yield forecasts are below the five-year average.
Pest pressure increasing in Germany
Pest outbreaks have been reported since mid May in southern and central Germany, with reports now extending to northern Germany. Sugar beet and potatoes are under pressure from Cixiidae spreading bacterial diseases like stolbur. Preliminary estimates suggest that one third of sugar beet areas could be affected, making close monitoring essential.
Rainfall excess impacts in northern Italy
In northern Italy, winter crops are showing clear signs of stress due to an excessively wet spring, affecting field conditions and probably crop outcomes.
Further agricultural information
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Links to related topics
O artigo foi publicado originalmente em JRC.
